Another major tension and turbulence emerge in the Horn of Africa in the new year 2024, due to the Ethiopian prime minister, Mr. Abiy Ahmed, signing an unlawful memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the president of the breakaway republic of Somaliland, Mr. Muse Bihi Abdi.
The illicit initial agreement included Ethiopia leasing 20 km of sea from the breakaway state of Somaliland in the Somalia Federal Republic for a period of fifty (50) years. The purpose of this agreement was for Ethiopia to establish a military naval base and secure direct access to a seaport in the city of Lughaye, located in the Awdal region of Somalia. In return, Somaliland would receive a 30% stake in the state-owned Ethiopian Airlines and formal recognition.
Despite, Somaliland declared its sovereignty state in 1991 following the collapse of the Somali government, but it has not yet received official recognition from the international community. Indeed, Somaliland has been a de facto power state since 1991.
The agreement shocked and surprised the government of Somalia and theentire world, as it flagrantly infringed on Somalia’s territorial integrity, national unity, and political sovereignty. Furthermore, Ethiopia is hosting the headquarter of the African Union and shamelessly violates the principles of the African Union (AU), which mention that the sovereignty of all African nations is inviolable.
The Somali government angrily responded to the unlawful agreement and Ethiopia’s aggression, vowing to defend its territorial integrity and national sovereignty. Furthermore, the global community, including the United Nations, Arab League, Organization of Islamic Cooperation, European Union, and United States of America, has officially reaffirmed its support for Somalia’s geographical integrity and national unity.
The Somalia-Ethiopia conflict originated in the 14th century, and both nations have a long history of bloody conflict and antagonism. Christian of Ethiopia has already declared a desire to invade the Muslim territories along the coast of Somalia.
Ethiopian’s longstanding ambition to seize Somali territory intensified when the British colony transferred the western region of Somalia to Ethiopia, which was inhabited by the Somali ethnic society.Both nations endured fierce interstate conflicts in 1964 and 1977, and both governments supported insurgent army oppositions in each other’s countries, resulted in the overthrown of both leaders, Siad Barre and Mengistu HaileMariam.There are main factors driving Ethiopia to sign an illegal agreement with Somaliland, as follows:
- The Ethiopian Prime MinisterDiverts Attention Away from the Local Conflict to the Outside.
Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is seeking to divert huge local plights, including the brutal civil wars, ethnic division, famine, and his false promises of reforms to the outside of the country. He several times described sea access by means of diplomacy and force, which is contrary to international customs and international laws, and his statement sparked tension across Horn of Africa countries.
This adventurous action for prime minster Abiy Ahmed’s illegal seeking to access seaports in Somalia is intended to unify the Ethiopian people and create a foreign enemy to relieve domestic challenges including insecurity, civil war, armed ethnic uprisings, and economic crises.
While the landlocked country of Ethiopia has a long history of ambition for acquiring the sea port in Somalia after losing its access to the sea when Eritra broke away from Ethiopia in 1994.
- Ethiopian Foreign Policy: A Study in Expansionism
Since the 14th century, Ethiopian leaders from Menelik, Haile Selassie, Mangiest Haile Mariam, and currently Abiy Ahmed have been believing the expansionism theory,claiming Somalia territories and seas and considering them to be part of their lands, which is based on false claims.
Expansionism, as a principle of political ideology, involves the country making attempts to expand its territory and influence through annexation or conquest of territory. And it is based on nationalism, colonialism, and imperialism.
- Ethiopian Foreign Policy Containment towards Great Somalia
As a result of a proxy war between both nations between 1964 and 1988, both presidents, General Mohamed Siad Barre and Mangiest Haile Mariam, were overthrown in 1991.Furthermore, Meles Zenawi took control of Ethiopia, while Somalia endured a civil conflict, warlordism, terrorism, and state failure.
Ethiopia uses foreign policy containment to undermine a functional Somali government and the revival of Somalia after the collapse of the Somalia government in 1991.
During the Somali civil war, Ethiopia illegally supplied weapons to warlords, fueling the civil war in Somalia. Ethiopia also sabotaged all peace conferences held for Somalia’s functional leaders. In addition, Ethiopia undermined Somalia’s Transitional Government (TFG), established in Djibouti in 2000.
In 2006, the Ethiopian military intervened in Somalia, toppling the Islamic Court Union (ICU) and resulted in the deaths of thousands of Somalis, humanitarian crises, displacement, and the emergence of ruthless terrorists, Al-Shabab, who are linked with Al-Qaida.
Since 2000, successive Somali governments have been attempting to preserve cordial relations with Ethiopia; nevertheless, the Ethiopian government remains to establish good relations with warlords and Federal Member States (FMS) leaders to weaken the federal government.
Recently, it has stabbed back the Somali government by signing an illegal Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a breakaway Somaliland in order to lease 20 kilometers. And Ethiopia seeks to distract Somalia from state-building and battling Al-Shabab.
Ethiopia views the functional Somalia government as a threat to its national interest due to the territorial dispute between them because Ethiopia controls western Somalia (Ogaden region), populated by Somalia ethnic society since 1940.
Ethiopia still adoptsas containment foreign policy strategy to avoid Somalia’s revival and effective state by maintaining strong relations with the Federal Member States (FMS) rather than the central government. Additionally, Ethiopia undermines the unity of the Somali people to erode their aspirations for a Great of Somalia (Somalia Wayne).
Containment is a US foreign policy strategy to avoid the spread of communism and the expansionist policy of the Soviet Union rather than intervening in countries that were already community-ruled. American diplomat George Kennan established the US strategic policy of containment.
- The Fragmented Somalia government
Somalia has failed to govern itself for the past thirty-four (34) years due to civil war, poor leadership, state privatization for a specific clan or group, inter-clan struggle for resources and power, terrorism, and clan-based federalism.
The protracted inter-clan war has culminated in grievances, a lack of trust among communities, and impeded the establishment of an effective government in Somalia since 1991.
According to Professor Abdurhaman Baadiyow, “the primary reason for the state failure of Somalia is the political culture of the Somali elite.”.
Ethiopia is exploiting the disunity within the Somali government and consistently inviting leaders from the Federal Member States (FMS) in Adis Ababa in order to exert pressure on the federal government and advance its own national interests, as the federal government lacks the authority of the regional states.
Consequences in the Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa region has been consistently affected by a multitude of crises, such as recurring famines and droughts, floods, civil war, underdevelopment, sluggish economic growth, diseases, high infant mortality resulting in poor governance, state failure, dictatorship, rampant corruption, and interstate conflicts fueled by proxy wars driven by international intervention. The former Soviet Union, the United States of America, and Western countries instigated this proxy war in the Horn of Africa.
These challenges have slowed down the progress of the Horn of Africa countries, making the region one of the poorest nations globally.
The primary interstate conflicts had been throughout the Somalia-Ethiopian war of 1964 and 1977, the Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict in 1998, and the Eritrea-Djibouti conflict in 2008.
Nevertheless, there were other proxy wars that occurred between Ethiopia and Somalia, Ethiopia and Sudan, and Sudan and Ethiopia. These conflicts brought about the loss of many lives, massive refugee flows, displacement, instability, underdevelopment, and low productivity.
Many countries in the Horn of Africa, including Sudan and Ethiopia, are experiencing brutal civil wars, along with Somalia’s civil conflict and fierce war between the ruthless Al-Shabab and ISIL terrorists and the Somali government.
Way Forward
Since the western colonists left the Horn of Africa, unresolved territorial and border disputes have been the primary catalysts for interstate conflict. Furthermore, it is crucial for the leaders of the Horn of Africa to realize that these societies in the region are inherently interconnected by the divine design of Allah and cannot be separated from one another. The only possible option is for the leaders to collaborate towards societal acceptance.
The proxy war between nations, external intervention, and expansionist policieshindered the development and collaboration of the societies in the Horn of Africa region.
The regional leaders have to mobilize their societies towards development, mutual benefit, poverty alleviation, and trade cooperation through the implementation of effective governance, fostering peaceful coexistence, upholding good governance, and ensuring that each country respects political sovereignty and territorial integrity. It’s imperative to avert interstate conflictsand the serious calamities that have afflicted the region for the past six decades.
Mr. Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, should immediately halt his attempt to annex the territory and maritime areas of a neighboring country by signing an unlawful memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the secessionist Somaliland administration, which is an integral part of Somalia.And he has to adhere to international norms, international law, and African Union principles. Furthermore, Prime Minister Abiy has to prevent the devastating civil war in his country, promote an atmosphere of reconciliation and harmony among the various ethnic groups in Ethiopia, eradicate severe poverty, enhance societal conditions, promote economic prosperity, and maintain solid diplomatic relations with neighboring nations, and the Prime Minister Abiy has a duty to actively pursue peaceful coexistence and regional progress.
The Somali government must continue to combat terrorist organizations such as Al-Shabaab and ISIL, as well as strengthen state institutional building through reconciliation and political consensus. This is essential because an effective state can only protect the country from bothforeign and internal threats.
The present administration in Somalia has to acknowledge that using emotional rhetoric is not useful in addressing these serious challenges. Extremist posts, poetry, and songs are ineffective in protecting Somalia’s territorial integrity and national sovereignty from both external and domestic challenges.
The current government has to mobilize the citizens, maintain social justice, address grievances among the clans, foster effective governance, promote the principle of merit-based recruitment, and refrain from appointing individuals based only on political affiliations to significant positions in foreign ministries and other public institutions.
The recruitment of qualified and well-educated individuals for diplomatic and other governmental posts will help overcome the challenges confronted by our beloved country.
In order to address this external grave issue, the government should cease engaging in cronyism and nepotism and instead focus on fostering unity among the Somali population, completing the review of the provisional federal constitution through political consensus, consolidating federalism, promoting economic growth and development, reducing unemployment, alleviating extreme poverty, and upholding principles of social justice.
A dominance of national agendas and the exclusion of the majority of societies from the behavior of the current ruling group will diminish the capability of our country to successfully address the foreign challenges it confronts during this critical time.
Somalia’s public institutions are extremely weak, as the government must consolidate and bolster them. Besides, the government should enhance the Somalia National Army by implementing initiatives to modernize it and providing it with the necessary equipment. Furthermore, it should establish a mutual defense treaty with Turkey and refrain from the hypocrisy of some Arab states and western countries.
Author: Ahmed Mohamoud Mohamed